If you have read Nassim Nicholas Taleb’s book The Black Swan you will be familiar with the Turkey story. It is an interesting and simple story about a Turkey that lives on a farm and has been fed and looked after by a Farmer for 1000 days. From the Turkey’s point of view all the evidence suggests life will just be as idilic for the next 1000 days or more however events all changed on day 1001 – you can only suppose it was Thanks Giving.

I like this story as it highlights the problem of limited evidence and knowledge to make decisions and predictions on events in the future. The Turkey only relied on evidence based on its immediate surroundings and perhaps information gained from other Turkeys living on the same farm.

The Turkey therefore fell into a false sense of security and perhaps if it had been able to gain a complete 360 degree view of its life-cycle it might have been able to determine the impending events on day 1001 and maybe made its escape to freedom the night before.